Oil Prices Rise on Unexpected U.S. Crude Stockpile Drop and Halt in Iraqi Exports

Oil prices increased on Thursday due to a surprise decline in U.S. crude stockpiles and a stoppage in exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq that outweighed a smaller-than-expected cut in Russian supplies.

Brent crude oil, against which Nigerian oil is priced, climbed 0.51% to $78.68 a barrel while West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 0.71% to $73.49 a barrel.

The Energy Information Administration revealed on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil stockpiles had dropped unexpectedly in the week ended March 24 to a two-year low.

Analysts had predicted a 100,000-barrel increase, but the inventory dropped by 7.5 million barrels.

Also, exports from Iraq’s northern region remained suspended due to oilfield producers shutting down or decreasing production following a stoppage to the northern export pipeline.

The Kurdistan-Iraq premium in oil prices, however, may vanish sooner than anticipated, as analysts from Citi predicted that pipeline flows could grow by around 200,000 barrels per day due to changes in Iraq’s domestic politics, which could lead to a durable political settlement.

Although the lower-than-expected cut to Russian crude oil production caused bearish sentiment, it was offset by the unexpected U.S. crude stockpile drop and halt in Iraqi exports.

The 300,000 barrels per day production decline in the first three weeks of March represented around 5% of Russian output, compared to targeted cuts of 500,000 barrels per day.

UBS stated that they anticipate rising Chinese crude imports and lower Russian production to boost prices over the coming quarters, despite the potential for near-term volatility in oil prices.

Meanwhile, markets will keep an eye on U.S. spending and inflation data scheduled for Friday and their impact on the value of the U.S. dollar.