The DMO held its monthly auction of FGN bonds on Monday (19 September ’22). It offered N225bn but raised N229.2bn (competitive allotment only) through re-openings of the 2025, 2032 and 2037 FGN bonds. The participation level was slightly lower when compared to the auction held in August.
The bid-to-cover ratio for September stood at 1.1x compared to 1.2x in August. The DMO secured a total bid of N246.4bn (USD564m) at the auction. The bids for the 3, 10 and 15-year benchmarks were allotted at the marginal rates of 13.5% (previously; 12.5%), 13.8% (previously; 13.5%) and 14.5% respectively.
The demand at this auction is partly driven by expected inflows of N166bn in coupon payments later this month as well as, improved system liquidity primarily driven by inflows of N185.8bn in FGN bond coupon payments in the first three weeks of September.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s economic research team note that market liquidity stood at a surplus of N28.3bn on Monday (20 September ‘22). Overnight and repo rates closed within a range of 9 – 11%.
The DMO had set out to raise N1.8trn through FGN bonds by end-Q3 ’22. However, yearto-date, it has raised N2.3trn, exceeding its target by 15% or N268bn. Considering the sale of other debt instruments such as NTBs and savings bonds, the DMO is on track pro rata to meet or exceed its domestic borrowing target (N3.53trn) for the year.
According to the DMO’s latest public debt report, total domestic debt increased by 5% q/q and 20.6% y/y to N26.2trn as at Q2. The increase can be partly attributed to increases in FGN bonds (6.7% q/q), NTBs (2.2% q/q) and FGN Savings bond (15.2% q/q).
FGN bonds accounted for 72.5% of total domestic borrowings in Q2. We maintain our view that the FGN is likely to depend on domestic borrowing to meet its fiscal deficit due to unfavourable external conditions.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s economic research team see mid-curve FGN bond yields around 13.0 – 14.0% and yields at the longer-end of the curve between 14.0% – 15.0% over the next one month. However, the level of system liquidity (impacted by items such as auctions, CRR debits/refunds, bond/NTB maturities, coupon payments and FAAC allocation) would also influence movement in yields.