Double-digit Growth in the Assets of PFAs

The latest monthly report released by Nigeria’s Pension Commission (PENCOM) report shows that the assets under management (AUM) of the regulated pension industry rose by 12.4% year-on-year to N13.8 trillion or USD57.3 billion in February and by 1.2% month-on-month.

We note that over the past five years, growth in AUM has averaged 17% year-on-year. Growth was highest in 2018 (26.1% year-on-year) while 2019 recorded the lowest (12.2% year-on-year). FGN debt securities accounted for 61.8% of the total AUM in February this year, compared with 66.4% recorded in the corresponding period of 2021. In the same period, other assets such as real estate, private equity and infrastructure funds accounted for 1.1%, 0.3% and 0.5% of total AUM respectively.

Typically, investments into these asset classes are hampered by the shortage of eligible instruments. As at end-February, total FGN debt securities held by Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) increased by 1.9% month-on-month and 4.6% year-on-year to N8.5 trillion. FGN bonds held by PFAs increased by 2% month-on-month and by 10.8% year-on-year to N8.1 trillion. This category accounted for 59.1% of total AUM, compared with 59.9% recorded in the corresponding period of 2021.

The Debt Management Office (DMO) has raised N883 billion from bond auctions in Q1 2022 (including non-competitive bids from public agencies). Therefore, exceeding their borrowing target for Q1 by 84%. Furthermore, the DMO recently published its bond issuance calendar for Q2 2022 which shows the total volume on offer between N630-N720 billion.

We note that the FGN’s revised 2022 budget deficit financing from N6.4 trillion to N7.4 trillion results in an increase in the domestic funding target for this year to N3.5 trillion. Ideally, increased borrowing places pressure on yields, resulting in upticks. This bodes well for FGN bond holders. However, this is also dependent on liquidity level which could affect upward adjustment of the yields.

The PENCOM report shows that NTBs held by PFAs declined by -10.8% month-on-month and -74.3% year-on-year to N173.9 billion in February 2022. This represents just 1.3% of the total AUM. We note that in the corresponding period of 2021, NTBs accounted for 5.5% of total AUM.

We attribute the slight shift from NTBs to the decline in the average yield by -81bps in February 2022. Meanwhile, state government securities held by PFAs declined by -0.9% month-on-month to N168.8 billion. This asset class accounted for 1.2% of total AUM, compared with its share of 1.0% in February 2021.

Domestic equity holdings rose by 1.5% month-on-month and 14.3% y/y to N1.1trn and accounted for 7.9% of total AUM, compared with 7.8% in February 2021. This implies a slight shift towards domestic equities by PFAs. We note that the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) rose to 47,394.53 in February 2022. This marked a 1.7% month-on-month gain for the index.

Similarly, the NGX pension index increased by 2.9% month-on-month in February ‘22, outperforming the market benchmark index by 126bps. The PENCOM report disclosed that the AUM recorded in February also comprised of
N9.7 trillion in a retirement savings account (RSA) active funds, N1.1trn in RSA retiree fund IV, N1.5 trillion in closed pension fund administrator schemes (CPFAs), N1.4 trillion in approved existing schemes funds and N20.3 billion for RSA Fund VI (non-interest fund), active and retiree.

As at end-February 2022, total schemes membership increased by c.37,000 to 9.59 million. This growth in schemes membership was driven by the increase in the RSA scheme on the back of increased compliance by the private sector.