Nigeria’s Rising Debt is Costly and Vulnerable Says World Bank

The World Bank has said the Central Bank of Nigeria’s large and growing financing has made Nigeria’s rising debt costly and vulnerable.

The Washington-based global financial institution disclosed this in its November edition of Nigeria Development Update.

According to World Bank, the country’s debt is at risk of becoming unsustainable in the event of macro-fiscal shocks.

It said, “Nigeria’s debt remains sustainable, albeit vulnerable and costly, especially due to large and growing financing from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

“While currently the debt stock of 27 percent of the Gross Domestic Product is considered sustainable, any macro-fiscal shock can push debt to unsustainable levels.

“However, the debt to the GDP in Nigeria is rising quickly, and the total stock of debt in absolute value has almost doubled between 2016 and 2020, and without a policy change is expected to reach 40 percent of the GDP by 2025.”

World Bank also expressed concerns over Nigeria’s rising cost of debt servicing, which according to the institution, has disrupted public investments in key sectors.

“The cost of debt servicing is also a concern as it is potentially crowding out public investment and critical service delivery spending. Interest costs have been above two percent of the GDP since 2018, reaching 2.4 percent of the GDP in 2019 and then falling to 2.2 percent of the GDP in 2020.

“Cost of debt is high as Federal Government also resorts to overdraft (Ways and Means financing) from the CBN to meet in-year cash shortfalls. At end of 2020, the stock of the CBN Ways and Means financing was estimated at N13.1tn or 8.5 percent of the GDP,” it stated.

Meanwhile, the Federal Government had estimated that Nigeria’s total public debt will rise from the present N38 trillion to N50.22 trillion by the end of 2023, with domestic debt projected at N28.75 trillion and foreign debt at N21.47 trillion. Suggesting that President Muhammadu Buhari-led’s administration is planning to borrow an estimated N12 trillion in two years.

Economists have condemned President Buhari’s incessant borrowing habit and warned that it could hurt the country’s development and productivity down the line. In the second quarter of 2021, the administration spent N445 billion on debt servicing, according to Debt Management Office. That is the amount that could have been used to improve factors of production and grow the economy.