As the Taliban seized control of the structures of power throughout Afghanistan, inflation has begun to skyrocket, and there has been a run on the banks, many of which were forced to close when they ran out of cash. The country is without payment processors like Paypal, and Western Union has stopped operating in the country.
“The Afghan economy is still largely a cash economy, and, while its unlikely that many will be able to immediately exchange their cash into cryptocurrency, there are signs that some in the country began to use digital assets before the government fell. Seeing the conditions on the ground, it was easy to see the allure of a decentralized digital currency as a way to protect the value of assets,” said Richard Gardner, CEO of Modulus, a US-based developer of ultra-high-performance trading and surveillance technology that powers global equities, derivatives, and digital asset exchanges.
“Obviously the current geopolitical situation is a mess, but, economically, Afghanistan is an extreme case of inflation and instability. In principle, the same theory of storing value, which applies in places like Nigeria, would apply to Afghanistan. The difference is in the technological infrastructure, which, of course, is more abundant in Nigeria,” said Gardner. “Even still, there are reasons to believe that, for some, it could provide a safe haven.”
Earlier this year, the Fantom Foundation, in conjunction with the Afghanistan Ministry of Health, announced that a trial run of the National Medical Importation Security Initiative was successful. The initiative used blockchain-based technologies to stop the counterfeiting of pharmaceuticals sold throughout the country.
“Not unlike other developing countries, education is the best way to expand access to technology. Of course, those with access to technology are going to be more interested in digital assets. There have been reports of students in universities in Afghanistan who learned about such things as opening a digital wallet,” Gardner explained. Anecdotal surveys also show that interest in Afghanistan has increased significantly over the past year, and, according to CNBC, Google Trends data shows that searches for cryptocurrency-related terms rose significantly in July.
Modulus is known throughout the financial technology segment as a leader in the development of ultra-high frequency trading systems and blockchain technologies. Over the past twenty years, the company has built technology for the world’s most notable exchanges, with a client list which includes NASA, NASDAQ, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Barclays, Siemens, Shell, Yahoo!, Microsoft, Cornell University, and the University of Chicago.
“When you look at what’s happened in Afghanistan, and when you realize that the citizenry of the country is likely to see significantly more financial hardships before the situation normalizes, it is easy to see the allure of cryptocurrencies. It will be interesting to see how the CBDC race bears out. In the future, will citizens of countries like Afghanistan look around to neighboring countries, identify a CBDC which they believe to be stable, and invest their savings there to prevent against inflation? If there aren’t regulations against it, that’s a significant possibility — and another reason why all central banks should want to move to develop their own CBDC with vigor,” said Gardner.