Nigeria’s Economy Expands by 0.51 Percent in Q1 2021

Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, grew by 0.51 percent year-on-year in the first quarter (Q1) of 2021, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The economy has now expanded for two consecutive quarters following the negative growths recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.

The first quarter (Q1) 2021 growth rate was slower than the 1.87 percent filed in Q1 2020 but higher than 0.11 percent posted in the fourth quarter of 2020. Suggesting a slow but continuous growth.

On a quarterly basis, the real GDP expanded by 13.93 percent in Q1 2021 when compared to Q4 2020, indicating a broad slow pace of economic activities at the start of the year.

In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N40,014,482.74 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N35,647,406.08 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 12.25 percent.

The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2021 was higher relative to 12.01 percent growth recorded in the first quarter of 2020 as well as the 10.07 percent growth recorded in the preceding quarter. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.

Oil Sector

In the first quarter of 2021, average daily oil production stood at 1.72 million barrels per day (mbpd), or 0.35mbpd lower than the average daily production of 2.07mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 but higher than the production volume of 1.56mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.

The oil sector recorded real GDP growth rate of –2.21 percent (year-on-year) in Q1 2021 indicating a decrease of –7.27 percent points relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020 (5.06 percent). Compared to Q4 2020 which recorded –19.76 percent growth rate, growth in Q1 2021 was higher by 17.55 percent points.

Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 35.65 percent in Q1 2021. In terms of contribution to aggregate GDP, the Oil sector accounted for 9.25 percent of aggregate real GDP in Q1 2021, slightly lower than 9.5 percent recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 but higher than in the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.87 percent.

Non-oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 0.79 percent in real terms in Q1 2021, which was –0.75 percent points lower compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2020 and -0.89 percent points lower than rates recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020. Growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by the Information and Communication (Telecommunication) sector while other drivers include Agriculture (Crop Production); Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco); Real Estate; Construction and Human Health & Social Services.

In real terms, the Non-oil sector accounted for 90.75 percent of aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2021, higher than its share in the first quarter of 2020 which was 90.50 percent but lower than 94.13 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020.