- Forex Weekly Outlook February 27 – March 3
The US dollar remained volatile even as economic data showed the labor market is strong and inflation rate is close to the Federal Reserves’ 2 percent target. Accordingly, experts have attributed last week dollar’s weakness to President Trump’s comment after saying on Thursday that the US dollar is too strong and that he will push for a weaker currency.
However, the euro-area currency is predicted to fall below parity against the US dollar this year, as central bank policies continue to differ.
Business confidence in the region has plunged in recent weeks amid lower than the expected growth rate, while Greece’s financial crisis once again threaten to break the Union apart.
The European Central Bank is therefore expected to go on with its huge quantitative easing programme, keeping the euro weak.
The growing popularity of France’s anti-Brussels candidate Marine Le Pen and her pledge to call a Frexit referendum should she win the election could also push investors to sell-off the currency.
Overall, the US dollar remained strong but uncertainty cloud its short-term outlook, while the Euro-area is yet to resolve Greece issue and face possible Frexit as it awaits both French election and official triggering of the Brexit process in March. The single currency is expected to dip further against the US dollar as traders and investors are likely to sell off the currency ahead of France election in April.
This week, EURJPY, GBPUSD and NZDJPY top my list.
The Euro single currency is facing low sentiment amid the political uprising in the Euro-area. While on the other hand, the Japanese yen remained a haven asset and likely to remain attractive as investors scramble to avert uncertain in both the US and Europe.
Another reason why this pair is a good sell, after this pair dropped to 109.22 record-low on 19th, June 2016. It has failed to break out of post-Brexit high (124.08) since then and seems to have established a range between 124.18 and 111.96 price levels. But with the renewed sell-off of the euro single currency, we could see this pair plunging to 115.27 support levels.
Therefore, this week I am bearish on EURJPY as long as price remains below 119.86, 20-day moving average. I will be looking to see below 118.55 for 115.27 targets, a break of that level could give us 111.96 support, target 2.
Last week, GBPUSD broke loose after President Trump comments on Thursday, however, the pair has gained back almost everything it lost due to that comment. This week, I remain bearish on this pair as the Brexit condition and the Euro-area financial issues deepened ahead of March Brexit date.
While the US uncertainty continued to impact dollar strength, the weakness revealed in the UK consumer spending and the cooling job market is likely to reinforce sellers’ interest ahead of official Brexit in March.
This pair dropped 51 pips last week but below our projection. However, it closed below 81.02 resistance levels. This week, I remain bearish on NZDJPY and will be looking to add to my position below 79.92.